HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025807.jpg
1.95 MB
Extraction Summary
10
People
2
Organizations
9
Locations
1
Events
2
Relationships
5
Quotes
Document Information
Type:
Meeting minutes / briefing notes
File Size:
1.95 MB
Summary
This document contains notes from a high-level foreign policy meeting in Aspen (likely the Aspen Strategy Group around 2012). The notes, summarized by 'TJP', detail discussions on the Israel-Palestine conflict, instability in Syria and Egypt, and a significant focus on potential military action against Iran. Prominent figures like Steve Hadley, Bill Perry, and representatives for both Obama (Podesta) and Romney (Pawlenty) discussed the timeline for Iran's nuclear capabilities and the consequences of a military strike.
People (10)
| Name | Role | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Indyk | Speaker/Expert |
Discussing Israeli public opinion and Syria.
|
| DR | Speaker/Expert |
Discussing Sinai, Egypt, and Palestinian issues. (Likely Dennis Ross based on context).
|
| TJP | Author/Summarizer |
Providing a summary on Iran discussions. (Likely Thomas J. Pritzker based on known document authorship in this collec...
|
| Pawlenty | Representative |
Representing Romney regarding logic on Iran.
|
| Romney | Politician (Mentioned) |
Referenced as being represented by Pawlenty.
|
| Podesta | Representative |
Representing Obama regarding logic on Iran.
|
| Obama | Politician (Mentioned) |
Referenced as being represented by Podesta.
|
| Graham Allison | Speaker |
Discussing choices regarding Iran.
|
| Steve Hadley | Speaker |
Discussing Iraq war comparison and options for Iran timeline.
|
| Bill Perry | Speaker |
Warning against military strikes.
|
Organizations (2)
| Name | Type | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Admin |
Refers to the US Administration.
|
|
| House Oversight Committee |
Source of the document (Footer).
|
Timeline (1 events)
Circa 2012
Policy meeting (likely Aspen Strategy Group) discussing Middle East stability and Iran nuclear options.
Aspen
Locations (9)
| Location | Context |
|---|---|
|
Subject of policy discussion.
|
|
|
Subject of policy discussion.
|
|
|
Described as a flashpoint with Egypt.
|
|
|
Subject of policy discussion.
|
|
|
Mentioned in context of settlements.
|
|
|
Major topic of discussion regarding nuclear program and potential war.
|
|
|
Location of the meeting ('Logic sitting in Aspen is fine...').
|
|
|
Mentioned by Steve Hadley in comparison to Iran options.
|
|
|
United States.
|
Key Quotes (5)
"Logic sitting in Aspen is fine, pulling the trigger is another matter."Source
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025807.jpg
Quote #1
"Discussions suggest that it is more likely than not that there will be a military attack on Iran in next 18 months."Source
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025807.jpg
Quote #2
"Aug, 2013 we will be out of options on Iran."Source
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025807.jpg
Quote #3
"Israeli public believes that they have no Arab partner w whom they can negotiate a peace."Source
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025807.jpg
Quote #4
"a military strike by US or Israel will have serious, unknowable and unintended consequences."Source
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025807.jpg
Quote #5
Full Extracted Text
Complete text extracted from the document (2,135 characters)
Indyk. Israeli public believes that they have no Arab partner w whom they can negotiate a peace. Syria reinforces notion that Israel should not take risk when regimes are fragile.
DR. Sinai is flashpoint w Egypt. Admin has had a very meaning? Palestinian issue is not key. Wasn’t art of Islamic awakening, but it is not insignificant. Demographics compel 2 state solution. Too much distrust between Israel and Palestinians. Steps that each could take to move towards each other (e.g. Israel offers money to any settler who leaves West bank.
Iran
TJP summary. Discussions suggest that it is more likely than not that there will be a military attack on Iran in next 18 months. That is going to be very ugly. Interestingly, polls suggest population and IR academics would not support such an attack. Both Pawlenty – representing Romney, and Podesta – representing Obama, presented a logic that – if followed, would lead to war with Iran. Logic sitting in Aspen is fine, pulling the trigger is another matter.
TJP summary. Discussions suggest that it is more likely than not that there will be a military attack on Iran in next 18 months. That is going to be very ugly. Interestingly, polls suggest population and IR academics would not support such an attack. Both Pawlenty – representing Romney, and Podesta – representing Obama, presented a logic that – if followed, would lead to war with Iran. Logic sitting in Aspen is fine, pulling the trigger is another matter.
Graham Allison. Two terrible choices, we should look for a third way.
Steve Hadley. Iraq was not a war of choice, it was a war of last resort when all other options failed. Aug, 2013 we will be out of options on Iran. We do need to think hard about our options and the sequencing of those options. Think in terms of a f
family of options and the methods of moving through them.
1. Stop the clock, buy time. Iran has rejected this.
2. Put more on the table. More for more.
3. Secure the big agreement that ends dispute. Could the US agree to allowing Iran to have a limited amount of LEU – say 3-5% enriched unranium.
4. If all of the above fails - what to do? US should try to establish a status quo w redlines where, if Iran tries to break out, we have time to attack. We would also want to understand Iran’s redlines.
5. Long term sanctions, pressure and isolation to try for regime change.
6. Limited military strike.
7. Big strike
Steve Hadley. Iraq was not a war of choice, it was a war of last resort when all other options failed. Aug, 2013 we will be out of options on Iran. We do need to think hard about our options and the sequencing of those options. Think in terms of a f
family of options and the methods of moving through them.
1. Stop the clock, buy time. Iran has rejected this.
2. Put more on the table. More for more.
3. Secure the big agreement that ends dispute. Could the US agree to allowing Iran to have a limited amount of LEU – say 3-5% enriched unranium.
4. If all of the above fails - what to do? US should try to establish a status quo w redlines where, if Iran tries to break out, we have time to attack. We would also want to understand Iran’s redlines.
5. Long term sanctions, pressure and isolation to try for regime change.
6. Limited military strike.
7. Big strike
Bill Perry: a military strike by US or Israel will have serious, unknowable and unintended consequences. Therefore attack is very unattractive. Iran is close to a
11
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025807
Discussion 0
No comments yet
Be the first to share your thoughts on this epstein document