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Type: Financial research report (spreadsheet)
File Size: 1.97 MB
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A Morgan Stanley Research 'North America Insight' document (Exhibit 50) containing a comparative financial sheet for Brokers & Asset Managers dated January 26, 2018. The spreadsheet lists financial metrics such as stock price, market cap, AUM (Assets Under Management), and earnings projections (2017-2019) for major financial firms including BlackRock, Apollo Global Management, and Blackstone. The document bears a 'HOUSE_OVERSIGHT' Bates stamp, indicating its inclusion in a congressional investigation.

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Morgan Stanley | RESEARCH
NORTH AMERICA INSIGHT
Brokers & Asset Managers Comps Sheet
Exhibit 50:
Brokers & Asset Managers Comps Sheet
Brokers & Asset Managers
26/Jan/18
Company Ticker Rating Price 26/Jan/18 Price Target Upside (%) Shares (M) Market Cap ($B) AUM ($B) LTM Net Flows/ BoP AuM (%) YTD Stock Perf. (%)
Earnings Per Share (EPS) 2017E 2018E 2019E
EPS CAGR (%) '17-'19
Price/Earnings (P/E) 2017E 2018E 2019E
EV/ EBITDA 2017E 2018E 2019E
As % of AuM Mkt Cap
Dividend Yield (%) 2018E
Covered Brokers & Asset Managers
Traditionals
Franklin Resources (5) BEN UW $45.86 $42 (8.4) 555 25.4 753 (5.3) 5.8 2.99 3.02 2.97 (0.3) 15.4x 15.2x 15.4x 13.9x 14.1x 6.9x 7.3x 7.9x 3.4 2.1
BlackRock Inc BLK OW $586.80 $660 12.5 162 94.8 5,977 7.1 14.2 n/a 28.79 31.34 n/a n/a 20.4x 18.7x 22.9x 21.1x n/a 14.5x 13.4x 1.6 2.0
Hamilton Lane HLNE EW $38.85 $38 (2.2) 53 2.1 29 11.6 9.8 1.16 1.57 1.90 27.8 33.4x 24.8x 20.4x 24.2x 20.0x 21.9x 19.2x 15.5x 7.1 2.0
Invesco Ltd IVZ EW $38.40 $39 1.6 407 15.6 917 1.2 5.1 2.68 2.94 3.15 8.4 14.3x 13.0x 12.2x 13.2x 12.4x 9.8x 9.1x 8.6x 1.7 3.3
Janus Henderson Group JHG OW $41.43 $50 21.4 198 8.2 361 (2.9) 8.3 1.69 2.69 3.10 35.5 24.5x 15.4x 13.4x 18.7x 16.2x 12.5x 10.0x 9.0x 2.3 3.4
Legg Mason (5) LM UW $45.75 $43 (6.0) 92 4.2 754 (3.0) 9.0 3.11 3.62 3.66 8.5 14.7x 12.6x 12.5x 11.9x 11.7x 8.7x 9.5x 9.8x 0.6 2.4
OM Asset Mgmt. (4) OMAM EW $18.31 $19 3.8 110 2.0 236 (0.3) 9.3 1.58 1.91 2.03 13.2 11.6x 9.6x 9.0x 9.9x 9.4x 8.4x 7.6x 7.2x 0.9 2.2
T. Rowe Price TROW EW $119.99 $115 (4.2) 244 29.3 948 0.7 14.4 6.03 7.33 7.16 8.9 19.9x 16.4x 16.8x 15.7x 16.1x 10.8x 10.7x 10.9x 3.1 1.9
Virtus Investment Partners VRTS EW $131.00 $127 (3.1) 7 0.9 91 0.4 13.9 7.42 11.02 11.81 26.2 17.7x 11.9x 11.1x 11.5x 10.8x 9.2x 7.1x 6.6x 1.0 1.5
Waddell & Reed Financial WDR UW $22.98 $20 (13.0) 83 1.9 81 (15.3) 2.9 1.68 1.98 1.86 5.2 13.7x 11.6x 12.4x 10.1x 10.8x 6.7x 7.0x 7.9x 2.4 4.4
WisdomTree Investments WETF EW $12.33 $14 13.5 137 1.7 46 2.2 (1.8) 0.23 0.50 0.72 76.2 53.1x 24.4x 17.1x 27.7x 19.4x 24.8x 16.2x 9.7x 3.6 1.0
Mean (Excl. HLNE, JHG, WETF), (Market Cap, EV and AuM equals Total) (2.1) 176.0 9,804 (1.8) 9.3 10.0 15.3x 13.8x 13.5x 13.7x 13.3x 8.6x 9.1x 9.0x 1.8 2.5
Median (Excl. HLNE, JHG, WETF) (3.6) 0.0 9.1 8.5 14.7x 12.8x 12.4x 12.6x 12.1x 8.7x 8.3x 8.2x 1.6 2.1
Alternatives
Apollo Global Mgmt APO OW $36.42 $42 15.3 403 14.7 242 9.9 8.8 2.97 3.68 3.72 11.9 12.3x 9.9x 9.8x 11.4x 11.3x 15.4x 10.3x 9.9x 6.1 7.4
Ares Mgmt. ARES EW $24.70 $20 (19.0) 216 5.3 106 15.9 23.5 1.90 1.73 1.87 (0.8) 13.0x 14.3x 13.2x 11.6x 10.7x 16.6x 15.2x 15.2x 5.0 4.9
Blackstone Group BX OW $36.78 $40 8.8 1,199 44.1 387 3.4 14.9 2.66 3.26 3.07 7.5 13.8x 11.3x 12.0x 12.3x 13.0x 10.9x 10.7x 9.9x 11.4 7.0
Carlyle Group CG OW $25.60 $33 28.9 343 8.8 174 (0.4) 11.8 3.09 3.03 2.52 (9.6) 8.3x 8.5x 10.1x 10.9x 13.1x 12.4x 7.5x 6.6x 5.0 8.5
KKR & Co KKR EW $24.40 $24 (1.6) 848 20.7 153 25.3 15.9 2.38 2.74 2.96 11.6 10.3x 8.9x 8.3x 8.8x 8.1x 10.6x 9.4x 9.4x 13.5 3.0
Oaktree Capital Group (2) OAK OW $45.20 $60 32.7 156 7.1 100 (3.7) 7.4 3.80 3.55 4.72 11.5 11.9x 12.7x 9.6x 16.9x 12.7x 10.4x 11.5x 8.7x 7.1 5.6
Mean (Covered Alts), (Market Cap, EV and AuM equals Total) 10.8 100.6 1,162 8.4 13.7 5.3 11.6x 10.9x 10.5x 12.0x 11.5x 12.7x 10.8x 9.9x 8.0 6.1
Median (Covered Alts) 12.0 6.6 13.3 9.5 12.1x 10.6x 10.0x 11.5x 12.0x 11.6x 10.5x 9.7x 6.6 6.3
Brokers
TD Ameritrade Holding Corp AMTD EW $54.97 $61 11.0 567 31.2 1,119 10.4 7.5 2.08 3.02 3.65 32.4 26.4x 18.2x 15.1x 20.2x 16.7x 18.8x 13.0x 10.5x 2.8 1.6
E*TRADE Financial Corp ETFC OW $53.49 $66 23.4 271 14.5 365 3.9 7.9 2.27 3.26 3.87 30.7 23.6x 16.4x 13.8x 20.3x 17.0x 11.6x 10.6x 9.5x 4.0 0.0
LPL Financial Holdings Inc LPLA EW $60.76 $62 2.0 90 5.5 560 3.3 6.3 2.27 3.99 4.27 37.0 26.7x 15.2x 14.2x 15.5x 14.5x 11.6x 8.6x 8.3x 1.0 1.6
Charles Schwab Corp SCHW OW $54.27 $63 16.1 1,340 72.7 3,181 7.0 5.6 n/a 2.47 2.85 n/a n/a 21.9x 19.1x 25.5x 22.1x n/a 13.0x 11.4x 2.3 0.8
Mean (Market Cap, EV and AuM equals Total) 13.1 123.8 5,225 6.1 6.8 33.4 25.6x 17.9x 15.5x 20.4x 17.6x 14.0x 11.3x 9.9x 2.5 1.0
Median 13.5 5.5 6.9 32.4 26.4x 17.3x 14.7x 20.2x 16.9x 11.6x 11.8x 10.0x 2.5 1.2
Covered Brokers & Asset Managers
Mean (Excl. WETF and HLNE), (Market Cap, EV and AuM equals Total) 5.6 398.8 16,144 3.4 10.2 12.6 15.8x 13.8x 13.0x 14.6x 13.6x 11.2x 10.2x 9.5x 4.0 3.3
Median (Excl. WETF and HLNE) 2.9 2.2 8.9 10.2 14.1x 12.9x 12.4x 12.8x 12.9x 10.7x 9.9x 9.4x 2.9 2.3
Non-Covered Brokers & Asset Managers
AllianceBernstein AB NC $27.85 NC NC 94 2.6 535 1.8 11.2 2.11 2.38 2.64 12.0 13.2x 11.7x 10.5x n/a n/a 3.7x 3.3x 3.1x 0.5 8.5
Affiliated Managers Group AMG NC $215.76 NC NC 56 12.0 804 (0.1) 5.1 14.49 17.39 18.81 13.9 14.9x 12.4x 11.5x n/a n/a 14.4x 13.0x 11.9x 1.5 0.5
Eaton Vance (5) EV NC $60.87 NC NC 118 7.2 422 11.2 7.9 2.61 3.36 3.79 20.6 23.3x 18.1x 16.1x n/a n/a 14.4x 12.3x n/a 1.7 2.2
Fortress Investment Group FIG NC N/A NC NC 240 n/a 0 (0.9) n/a 0.06 0.07 0.08 20.7 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 4.5x 3.7x 3.0x n/a n/a
Och-Ziff Capital Mgmt. OZM NC $2.38 NC NC 185 0.4 33 (23.9) (4.8) 0.50 0.36 0.40 (11.1) 4.7x 6.5x 6.0x n/a n/a 5.7x 7.3x 6.1x 1.3 7.6
Stifel Financial Corp SF NC $66.36 NC NC 68 4.5 265 n/a 11.4 3.21 4.61 5.40 29.6 20.7x 14.4x 12.3x n/a n/a 13.7x 12.6x 10.3x 1.7 0.3
Raymond James Financial, Inc. RJF NC $98.26 NC NC 145 14.3 664 n/a 10.0 5.47 6.90 7.74 18.9 18.0x 14.2x 12.7x n/a n/a 28.2x 25.1x n/a 2.2 1.1
Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. IBKR NC $64.20 NC NC 71 4.6 97 n/a 8.4 1.22 2.04 2.34 38.4 52.6x 31.4x 27.5x n/a n/a 6.4x 4.7x 4.0x 4.7 0.6
S&P 500 (3) 2,872.9 2,750 (4.3) 7.5 131.60 145.00 150.00 6.8 21.8x 19.8x 19.2x 19.0x 18.3x 2.2
Source: Company Data, Thomson Reuters, Morgan Stanley Research estimates, except for NC (not covered), which are Thomson Reuters estimates
(1) Alternative asset manager net flows include fee-paying fundraising and inflows net of redemptions and distributions.
(2) OAK estimates reflect Adjusted Net Income (ANI), given that is the primary metric reported by the company.
(3) S&P500 EPS based off of MS Equity Strategy Team's estimates
(4) ENI/Unit represents EPS and P/ENI represents P/E
(5) BEN, LM and EV have fiscal years not ending in December, so for these companies CY estimates were used in order to have temporal consistency. BEN and LM reflect MS estimates; EV reflects consensus Thomson estimates.
Source: Company Data, Thompson Reuters, Morgan Stanley Research estimates, except for non-covered companies (NC), which are consensus estimates
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HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025580

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